The morning after: Conspiracy theories and names in the air

It could be called the equivalent of the political hangover: A news event rocks the political landscape, and in the process pundits, journalists and insiders throw out so many different hypothetically impending scenarios that it’s hard to keep track of what had merit in reality and what was a pipe dream.

The next morning, it’s all a cesspool of political speculation and innuendo.

The day after Senator Arlen Specter made his big switch, pa2010.com offers a humble attempt at coalescing this noise into something manageable. And though it’s sometimes hard to tell which ideas were planted by political operatives, which were casually floated by pundits, and which were based in genuine reporting… we do our best. None of these scenarios should be ingested without several grains of salt.

Scenario 1: Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-6) will run for the GOP Senate nomination.

Looking at the various reports, this one seems like it just may be based on genuine interest from him, or at least from people close to him. Having persevered in an increasingly Democratic district, Gerlach already has relationships with national Republicans who have seen his toughness. But even if victorious in a primary, matching Specter’s fundraising for the general election would be a profound challenge. Snap verdict: Possible.

Scenario 2: Democrat Joe Torsella will exit the Senate race.

While this is fervently denied by Torsella and people close to him, many party insiders say it’s a foregone conclusion. Torsella was always assumed to be in the race with Gov. Ed Rendell’s support, and raised some of his early money from a roster of Rendell supporters. With the Governor and the party apparatus he controls behind Specter, continuing his early fundraising blitz would prove very difficult. And The Inquirer speculates that Torsella could get the top spot at the Chamber of Commerce of Greater Philadelphia as a consolation. Snap verdict: Likely.

Scenario 3: Pat Meehan will run for Senate.

This appears to be little more than a plant by people close to Attorney General Tom Corbett, Meehan’s likely opponent in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Meehan has worked for Specter, is the only Republican gubernatorial candidate who was willing to admit he’d vote for him and would have to compete with Specter for a Philadelphia-area base of voters that Specter owns. Snap verdict: Unlikely.

Scenario 4: Loads of lower-profile Republicans are poised to jump in.

The names floating around with varying levels of viability include the top Republican in the state Senate Joe Scarnati, who is also Lieutenant Governor, state Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi. Regardless, with the primary field suddenly seeming quite empty and the state’s senior-most GOP elected official gone, more than a few Republicans are bound to make noise. Snap verdict: Very likely

Scenario 5: Tom Ridge will run for Senate

This one seems to be purely a floating trial balloon in the media. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) brought the idea up yesterday, and CQPolitics chimed in with this. But considering the money Ridge is making in the private sector—and the opposition his pro-choice positions received when he was a possible vice-presidential candidate—the former Governor may not have much reason to bother. Snap verdict: Unlikely

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