Michael Livingston's Blog

Purple in Pennsylvania

Specter, Toomey, and the Danger of Facile Predictions

As everyone knows by now, former Congressman Pat Toomey has challenged incumbent Senator Arlen Specter in the Republican primary, and leads in pretty much every poll. Specter is a street fighter as well as an unmatched fundraiser, and the race will probably tighten up in the next few months. But barring a major shift, it is unlikely he’ll win.

In the coming days you’ll hear a lot from state and national analysts about how Republicans will lose the seat if they reject Specter. The problem is that they have lost it already. By voting for the stimulus package, Specter made pretty clear that he isn’t a Republican in any meaningful sense of the term. Nor are this or other similar votes a matter of genuine conscience—like, say, Joe Lieberman’s support for the war in Iraq–which might make moderate Republicans support him. Instead, they look more like opportunism, which makes defending Specter that much more difficult.

I’d be careful about facile predictions, also. Based on previous elections, it looks like Specter would have a better chance of retaining the seat. But as they say on Wall Street, past results do not always indicate future performance. By November 2010, President Obama’s economic plans may prove successful… or they may be a full-blown disaster. If it is the former, Democrats and Independents would have little reason to vote for a Republican candidate. If it is the latter, Toomey may look like a moderate, and his victory would be no more improbable than Rick Santorum’s in 1994—or a Republican presidential candidate’s in 2012.