Schwartz, other House Dems eye Senate race warily

Only a few months ago, they were considered the most likely candidates to carry the Democratic banner and capture a second Senate seat in 2010. Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz (D-13), Congressman Patrick Murphy (D-8) and Congressman Joe Sestak (D-7) were all seen bringing different political strengths—and lots of money—to the table, perhaps capable of beating even the invincible Arlen Specter.

Today, the three are mentioned far less often. They have largely avoided talking about the race, while aides have quietly dropped hints that their bosses aren’t rushing to get in line for the nomination. Their reasons run the gamut. All three are occupied, to varying degrees, with President Obama’s ambitious agenda in Congress. Sestak’s office said in December that he wouldn’t run, even though he’s flush in campaign cash and his recent fundraising numbers have only fueled speculation. Murphy spent much of his large war chest in the final weeks of his reelection bid last year, leaving him with less cash on hand than some had expected. And with politicians of every stripe still loathe to count out Specter, all three are sitting in relatively safe Congressional seats that might seem like too much to risk.

Schwartz, in particular, has seemed to be leaning away from the Senate race recently. With positions the Budget Committee and the Ways & Means Committee, she has been playing a significant, if not high-profile, role in health care reform. She has impressed colleagues with her rise up committee leadership ladders, and a Senate run would jeopardize that progress.

“In just three terms, she’s gotten to a very good place in the House, on a good committee, and is recognized within the caucus as one of the leaders on health care,” said Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel, who preceded Schwartz in her 13th District seat before giving it up for his own unsuccessful Senate run against Specter. “Giving up a House career of growing influence would have to be part of her calculation. It’s not an easy choice.”

A Democratic operative familiar with Schwartz’s thinking, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the momentum behind health care reform in Congress and the new administration has made Schwartz hesitant to take her attention off those efforts.

“Working for health care reform has been something that Schwartz has focused on the for the majority of her adult life, and to have a real role in reform at her feet in the
House has made that her central focus,” the operative said. “This is the year for the debate. So do you want to have a real role in that or do you want spend your time campaigning for a U.S. Senate race? You could make a case for either one, but right now the thing that’s immediately in front of her is a chance to figure out health care reform.”

At the same time, Schwartz has been especially savvy at keeping her name in the mix, never “closing the door” even when the stories and rumors are her not running.

“I appreciate my name being mentioned as frequently as it has been, because it means I’m doing a damn good job,” she told the Harrisburg Press Club in February.

The Democratic operative said that Schwartz might consider the race more seriously if health care reform legislation is passed relatively quickly. With about $2.1 million on hand at the end of March, she has some time to wait out the race. But in an expensive campaign attracting national money, that time will run out fast.

“I think the window is closing earlier than it would normally,” state Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney told pa2010.com.

If either of the three House Democrats were the enter the race, they would almost certainly be favored to win the primary. Joe Torsella, a former head of the National Constitution Center who has never held elected office, is the only Democrat in the race so far. State Representative Josh Shapiro (D-Montgomery) has been aggressively looking into a run, in part, party insiders say, because of his more senior colleagues’ reticence.

But ask three people which one is most likely to jump in and you’ll get three different answers. Some say Schwartz because of her seniority. Others say Sestak because of his overflowing war chest. And still others say Murphy because of his perceived reputation as a more fiscally conservative Democrat.

And then there’s the ultimate variable: whether the Democratic nominee will have to face Specter or the more conservative Pat Toomey. If Democrats were confident Specter won’t make it to a primary, it’s safe to assume more would be off the fence.

A Murphy spokesman declined to comment, and Sestak’s campaign manager could not be reached last week.

Abe Amoros, the state Democratic Party’s spokesman and political director, predicted at least one of the three would jump in at some point.

“I think each of them right now is taking a hard look as to whether they’re viable,” he said.