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Analyst on Senate race: ‘Where are the Democrats?’
With national attention focused squarely on the fierce GOP Senate primary, the Democratic field has been in a state of flux, with candidates leaning toward the race one day and away the next.
The result has been what most political insiders describe, at least for now, as a weak Democratic field. And with Republican Pat Toomey increasingly looking like a viable GOP nominee, at least one political watcher is wondering what’s taking Democrats so long to dive into the race.
“Where are the Democrats?” G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College, wondered aloud Monday.
“It’s almost like everybody’s waiting for a strong candidate to jump in,” he said.
The relatively empty field—only two candidates have officially declared—is clearly part of what led underdog state Representative Bill Kortz (D-Allegheny) to declare his candidacy last week. Ever since then, there have been whispers of Democrats thinking that if Kortz—a relative political lightweight—can run, perhaps anyone else could, too.
The names of political bigwigs and backbenchers alike are now swirling with greater and greater frequency.
“It does seem strange that the Democrats don’t have six or seven people, knowing that Toomey could beat Specter,” Madonna said.
With the window to begin fundraising for an expensive race closing fast, it seems almost certain that at least one Democratic heavyweight will make the plunge, party insiders say.
And that could change the whole thing, Madonna said.
“Who knows what would happen in a crowded race?” he said.
April 27, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Tags: Arlen Specter, Bill Kortz, Pat Toomey, Terry Madonna
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David Diano
Apr 27th, 2009
The ssmart move for the Dems is to avoid wasting money in a primary, get behind one candidate early, and avoid a primary. The GOP is goinf to have a bloody primary.
Brian Kline
Apr 28th, 2009
If the GOP poll numbers remain consistent, I think Sestak will eventually jump in the race. But I think there are still some within the Dem Party leadership holding out hope that Specter switches. His recent announcement about opposing EFCA was met with muted criticism from Dems and even Labor. In fact, some Dems like Ed Rendell and Bob Brady continue to lavish praise on Specter for supporting the economic stimulus bill.
Let’s remember Toomey is not Santorum, who had a tendency to make comments that drove the Left nuts. Also, turnout numbers in 2010 will be lower than 2008. That combined with energized GOPers making this primary a national ideological clash between moderates and conservatives could have Dems nervous, no matter who the nominee is.
Nat Holman
Apr 28th, 2009
Toomey is possibly WORSE than Santorum. He was one of the architects of privatizing social security. He is one of the original partners of Team Capital Bank. As Congressman in the 15th District, he was absolutely brutal on labor issues, as bad if not worse than Santorum. Toomey is why Charlie Dent is viewed by many, incorrectly as a moderate. I like Joe Sestak, but I am told that he is ruthless to work for, going through staff like underwear. Josh Shapiro is a solid bet for the Dems. Specter is done. He can’t renege on his promise to vote against EFCA and he will probably vote against health care reform in a feeble attempt to keep what is left of his seat. Even changing parties can’t help him. It is a shame, as he had the opportunity to leave politics with a great legacy, rather than the lukewarm one he now offers.
David Diano
Apr 28th, 2009
Nat, we are pretty much in agreement. Specter is done.
The “lavish” praise is some farewell ass-kissing in hopes of getting a few more votes out of Specter.
Toomey is to the right of Santorum (the far-wrong) and is unelectable against a decent Dem with party support.
Sestak would be a formidable opponent, but there are better (real) Democrats we can have who can win the seat. This is not the election to settle for half a loaf like Sestak.